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December 6, 2022
The economy will grow 2.7% in 2022, an upward revision. In 2023 the expansion will be 2.5% given lower global growth, high interest rates and lower public investment. On the other hand, Quellaveco will reach its operational capacity and tourism will normalize. This will reverse in 2024 and activity will grow 2.4%.
October 11, 2022
After growing 3.5% YoY in the first half of the year, activity will slow down in the second half, resulting in GDP growth of 2.3% in 2022. For 2023, we expect a 2.5% expansion, driven by the recovery of mining and tourism that will compensate for a weak external environment and the downturn in public investment.
May 17, 2022
A series of global and domestic macro fundamentals drove recent sharp RMB depreciation. We do not think it will lead to systematic financial instability risk as it is synchronized with depreciation of other currencies amid FED tightening measures. The PBoC has counter-cyclical tools to maintain the RMB exchange rate stable.
October 21, 2021
The Peruvian economy will grow 12,2% in 2021. Activity has been showing relatively favorable performance, a positive surprise. However, the deterioration of confidence will weaken this impulse looking forward and, together with lesser external tailwinds, will result in a 2,3% growth of economic activity in 2022.
July 6, 2021
We provide a macro analytical framework to investigate what determines the RMB exchange rate trend in 2H21. RMB exchange rate is expected go back to the 6.4 to 6.5 range at end-2021 and will display two-way fluctuations.
April 22, 2021
We expect the Peruvian economy to grow 10% in 2021 and 4,8% next year, supported by a favourable external context. These forecasts are strongly conditioned to the maintenance of macroeconomic stability by the new government administration and largely reflect a rebound after the sharp output contraction in 2020.
February 1, 2021
This report is trying to answer the three questions: What is the underlying logic of the ongoing RMB appreciation trend? Is the trend sustainable as the global economy normalizes? And where will the RMB exchange rate go at end-2021?
January 13, 2012
We propose a fundamentals-based econometric model for the weekly changes in the euro-dollar rate with the distinctive feature of mixing economic variables quoted at different frequencies
