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December 14, 2023
At today's monetary policy meeting, the ECB maintained rates at 4% for deposit facility and the main refinancing operations rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations.
October 26, 2023
Today's ECB policy adhered to broader expectations of maintaining the status quo on policy rates and quantitative tightening. After a remarkable streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, the ECB's decision today to leave the three key ECB interest rates unchanged came as no surprise, in line with our expectations.
September 14, 2023
It is clear that after this hike the ECB is prepared for a long pause and probably the end of the hiking cycle, although further rate hikes cannot be completely ruled out as inflation could surprise to the upside and the ECB has said that it remains in a data-dependent mode.
July 27, 2023
Our forecast still leans towards a further rate hike in September (reaching a terminal rate of 4% for the deposit rate); however, recent data weaknesses and ECB communications before and during the meeting have increased the likelihood of a potential pause and the possibility of no further hikes.
September 9, 2021
As expected, the ECB announced a moderate slower pace of net asset purchases under the PEPP for next quarter, as compared to that in the previous two quarters. The decision was taken by unanimity by the Governing council on the back of favourable financing conditions and slightly better inflation outlook
April 22, 2021
The ECB reaffirmed the assessment for the Euro Area macro-economic outlook put forth in March's meeting. The ECB left monetary policy as well as forward guidance unchanged, with President Lagarde striking a note of cautious optimism over the medium term outlook while being cognizant of near term downside risks.
March 11, 2021
The ECB, as expected, left its benchmark interest rates and broader policy guidance unchanged, but surprised boldly by announcing a significant step up of asset purchases under the PEPP next quarter. The decision was a clear response to the recent increase in bond yields.
January 21, 2021
Today’s wait and watch policy meeting suggests that the ECB will stay put in the short to medium-run regarding monetary policy, awaiting better clarity on the evolution of the pandemic, the recovery and financial conditions, while continuing to use the PEPP with high flexibility, preserving favourable financing conditions.
December 19, 2019
There was much curiosity surrounding Christine Lagarde's first press conference following a meeting of the ECB's Governing Council. This was not so much over the tone of monetary policy—which followed the same lines as in Mario Draghi's era—but over how she would act in a fractured field where some did not welcome her.
