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January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
December 6, 2024
BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in Colombia of 2.0% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026, driven by recovering domestic demand, lower interest rates, and reduced inflation. Consumption and investment will gain momentum, while the external deficit will be financed by FDI.
December 5, 2024
GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, driven by private consumption in durable goods, semi-durables, and services starting in 2026, and by fixed investment in infrastructure, machinery, and housing. Inflation will be 3.1% in 2026, with lower interest rates strengthening financial conditions.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
October 17, 2024
The moderation in domestic demand continues, while the production side demonstrates a clearer worsening trend in 3Q. We expect GDP growth to be 3.2% and retreat further to 2.7% on restrictive monetary policy, tight financial conditions and expected fiscal consolidation in 2025.
October 11, 2024
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue to decline.
October 1, 2024
Domestic demand will lead Colombia’s economic recovery, driven by improved financial conditions that will strengthen consumption and investment. This will provide a significant boost to sectors such as manufacturing and retail. In the long run, increasing investment will be essential to raise the country’s growth potential.
September 17, 2024
Economic activity continued to weaken on tighter financial conditions and demand may slow down further in 3Q. We have updated our 2024 growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.5% on base effects, and our 2025 growth forecast to 2.7% from 3.5% on the lagged impact of restrictive monetary stance and fiscal consolidation.
August 27, 2024
The Colombian economy shows a gradual recovery in a scenario of lower rates. Going forward, the economy will gain traction with the dynamization of domestic demand. However, it will face challenges due to still high inflation and interest rates.
August 23, 2024
Wealth stagnation may be influencing consumption and investment decisions. The recovery of prices in the real estate sector will help to improve the trend. However, the concentration of wealth in housing has negative externalities.
August 14, 2024
Weak performance recorded in the economic activity in 2Q24, points to the higher-than-expected impact of bridge day effects. Excluding these effects, the contraction in activity becomes moderate but still higher than our expectation. We assess that the risks to our 3.5% growth forecast for 2024 start to be to the downside.
July 19, 2024
The economic activity decelerates further especially driven by the weakening in industry. Aggregate demand remains stronger than supply, keeping inflationary pressures alive. Risks would be on the upside for our 2024 GDP forecast of 3.5%, considering the strong performance in 1H24 and continuing supportive fiscal stance.
