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October 17, 2024
Europe | ECB hastens the easing cycle
The ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, following signals given by Lagarde in September in her speech at the European Parliament, due to lower inflation and weak activity data. We expect another 25 basis point cut in December.
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October 16, 2024
Europe | Inflation converging to target, growth in play
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
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September 16, 2024
Europe | What’s the story with the ECB’s rates?
As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as inflation improves and medium-term risks diminish. Christine Lagarde dropped no hints regarding possible future decisions, as per the central bank’s recent policy of taking action meeting by meeting, based on hard data.
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September 12, 2024
Europe | Second ECB rate cut this year, eyes on December
today’s ECB meeting did not offer much new information, as widely expected, apart from making the second rate cut this year. With virtually no hints today, this meeting supports our expectation of a very gradual cycle of rate cuts, with one more rate cut in December.
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September 2, 2024
Spain | Monetary policy and banking variables in 2024
The year 2023 ended with a declining banking sector marked by the contraction of credit and the slowdown in deposits due to the ECB's restrictive monetary policy. However, the easing of interest rates and this monetary policy in 2024 has improved credit performance and boosted growth of deposits
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July 18, 2024
Europe | The decision for a September rate cut is wide open
As expected, the ECB leaves its monetary policy unchanged and leaves the door open for a rate cut at the next meeting in September, awaiting for more data on wages, profit margins and productivity that confirm its inflation outlook.
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June 6, 2024
Europe | A hawkish cut
No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises in the outlook for inflation during the rest of the year.
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June 3, 2024
Europe | The ECB and the unknowns of inflation
The ECB will most likely lower its interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this week. This decision has long been anticipated, suggested at previous meetings, and even clearly accepted in statements by the more hawkish members of the Governing Council.
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