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January 30, 2025
Europe | The direction is clear: more cuts to come
The ECB adopted a relatively dovish stance today while implementing the widely expected rate cut, signaling the possibility of further reductions without committing to a specific terminal level. This approach aligns with the continued progress in disinflation and the subdued momentum of the Eurozone economy.
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December 12, 2024
Europe | Easing path on track
As expected, today the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Lagarde did not give many clues on the next steps but reaffirmed that the disinflationary process is on track. We maintain four more cuts for the first half of 2025 to 2% (depo).
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October 17, 2024
Europe | ECB hastens the easing cycle
The ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, following signals given by Lagarde in September in her speech at the European Parliament, due to lower inflation and weak activity data. We expect another 25 basis point cut in December.
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October 16, 2024
Europe | Inflation converging to target, growth in play
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
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September 16, 2024
Europe | What’s the story with the ECB’s rates?
As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as inflation improves and medium-term risks diminish. Christine Lagarde dropped no hints regarding possible future decisions, as per the central bank’s recent policy of taking action meeting by meeting, based on hard data.
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September 12, 2024
Europe | Second ECB rate cut this year, eyes on December
today’s ECB meeting did not offer much new information, as widely expected, apart from making the second rate cut this year. With virtually no hints today, this meeting supports our expectation of a very gradual cycle of rate cuts, with one more rate cut in December.
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