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Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.
We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.5% after realizing nearly 4.5% in 2023.
In the first quarter of 2023, GDP grew 3.0% YoY and domestic demand fell 0.1% YoY, due to the deterioration of fixed investment and inventory deaccumulation. External demand contributed positively to growth. BBVA Research has a slight upward bi…
In the third quarter, GDP maintained a good dynamic, growing 13.2% in annual terms and 5.7% compared to the second quarter. Private consumption was at 107% of its pre-pandemic level and public consumption remains strong thanks to spending assoc…
In our recently published report on prospects for the Colombian economy, we highlighted the leading role that domestic demand is set to have in the coming years. Within this role, there will be disparities between its consumption and investment…
GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the …
