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February 17, 2025
GDP grew 1.7% in 2024, led by domestic demand (+2.2%). Private consumption (1.6%) was driven by a rebound in durable goods and services, while fixed investment (3.0%) grew due to machinery, equipment, and civil works. In 2025, growth is expected at 2.5%, with better financial conditions but fiscal and global risks.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
November 20, 2024
Growth outlook remained weak, while the demand indicators point to a slower-than-desired correction. Considering tight financial conditions and the gradual moderation in domestic demand, we expect the economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024 but downside risks are increasing on our 2.7% growth forecast for 2025.
November 6, 2024
This study provides an overview of consumption patterns in Colombia, analyzing how purchasing power and demographic shifts influence household decisions. It also explores changes in the consumer basket and the impact of digital trends on Colombians' preferences.
October 11, 2024
Domestic demand is driving Colombia's economic recovery, with GDP projected to grow by 2.0% in 2024 and up to 3.5% by 2026. Investment and consumption, particularly in durable goods, will fuel growth, while inflation and interest rates continue to decline.
May 7, 2024
Observing no clear signs of deceleration, we nowcast a quarterly GDP growth closer to 1.5% as of May. Given the current solid performance and the lagged impact of the expected tighter policies in 2H, we eliminate our previous slight downward bias and now assess the risks on our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 3.5% are balanced.
February 7, 2024
We revise our activity impulse report to become a flash release at the start of each month. By the end of January, our GDP nowcast indicators signal a nearly stagnant quarterly GDP growth rate, which corresponds to an annual growth of 3.5%. We keep our 2024 GDP growth forecast at 3.5% after realizing nearly 4.5% in 2023.
May 15, 2023
In the first quarter of 2023, GDP grew 3.0% YoY and domestic demand fell 0.1% YoY, due to the deterioration of fixed investment and inventory deaccumulation. External demand contributed positively to growth. BBVA Research has a slight upward bias in its GDP growth projection of 0.7% in 2023.
November 16, 2021
In the third quarter, GDP maintained a good dynamic, growing 13.2% in annual terms and 5.7% compared to the second quarter. Private consumption was at 107% of its pre-pandemic level and public consumption remains strong thanks to spending associated with the vaccination program.
May 3, 2019
In our recently published report on prospects for the Colombian economy, we highlighted the leading role that domestic demand is set to have in the coming years. Within this role, there will be disparities between its consumption and investment components and between its private or public sources. In line with this, domestic demand will grow above GDP during 2019 and 2020.
June 12, 2018
GDP grew by 7.4% (YoY) in 1Q18 above both consensus and our expectation (7% vs. 6%). The acceleration in growth on quarterly basis was surprising (2% vs 1.7% in 4Q), mainly supported by the boost in private consumption and the recovery in investment. We forecast 2018 GDP growth to be 3.5-4.0% as we expect adjustment of the economy to become more obvious from now onwards.
