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January 20, 2025
Spain | Inequality, growth, and zero-sum thinking
Economic growth, inequality, and zero-sum thinking form a triangle that has shaped societies over the years. The historical transition from a subsistence economy to one of sustained growth has transformed social perceptions of wealth and how it is distributed.
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January 7, 2025
Spain | Business loans: a matter of demand
Spanish companies have reduced their debt over the past decade, largely due to a contraction in bank credit. The performance of this type of credit has been negatively influenced by demand-side factors, especially weak levels of investment.
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February 15, 2024
Investment in Spain and the EU
With a similar starting level two decades ago, Gross Fixed Capital Formation per working-age adult in Spain stood at 2,217 euros in 3Q23, 5.3% less than in 2001, while in the EU27 it reached 3,282 euros, 35.6% more than in 2001 and 48.0% more than in Spain.
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January 29, 2024
Spain | The rise and fall of corporate debt
Following several years of relative calm, global debt has been steadily growing since the 2008 financial crisis. Aside from the question of public debt, corporate debt grew sharply from 73% of GDP in 2008 to peak at 102% in 2020, at the height of the pandemic.
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February 1, 2023
Spain | Productivity Pact
Competitiveness improved during the pandemic due to lower margins, and again during the recovery due to lower relative wage growth. In practice, this has meant an implicit ‘income pact.’ In addition to reaching an agreement on how this cost-sharing will continue, it would be useful to think about a ‘productivity pact'.
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December 27, 2022
Spain | Banking, reflections and purposes
2022 has been a year of transition for banking. It started off with a lot of dynamism, as the economic recovery was expected to consolidate, leaving the pandemic behind us. But the war initiated by Russia in Ukraine radically changed the course of events.
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October 3, 2022
Mexico | Additional thoughts on the fiscal package
Previously, I presented some arguments why it seems to me that tax revenues next year could be lower than estimated, which would present the government with the dilemma of having to cut spending or increase indebtedness.
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October 3, 2022
Spain | Private debt, a situation better than in the past
Private debt among Spanish companies and households, according to the Bank of Spain’s Financial Accounts for the Spanish Economy, currently stands at 135% of GDP, in line with the eurozone (137%). While both economies now find themselves at a similar juncture, they have followed very different paths.
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February 26, 2021
China | Corporate deleveraging campaign: from "proactive" to "passive"
Chinese authorities’ 2016-2018 corporate deleveraging campaign seems to have given way to the escalating China-US tensions and the COVID-19, however, it restarts now in a more "passive" way.
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February 18, 2019
Mexico Banking Outlook. First half 2019
In 2018, the main source of growth in bank credit granted to the private sector was that allocated to companies. Traditional deposits reverse their downward trend, albeit at a moderate pace. Consumer Credit: recent developments and analysis of the slowdown in its growth rate. Mexican corporations’ foreign debt: the scenario changes, but risks for the bank remain limited.
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August 2, 2018
Banking Outlook. August 2018
The Spanish banking industry made profits of 3.106 billion euros in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the losses posted in 2017, which were prompted by the sale of Banco Popular. Cleaning of bank balance sheets is gathering pace, while deleveraging of the private sector is ongoing. The efficiency and profitability of the system have improved in the first quarter.
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