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There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…
Improved financial conditions for households and businesses, facilitated by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation, will pave the way for a gradual economic recovery in Colombia throughout 2024, solidifying by 2025. We project a 1.5% GD…
The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed d…
To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and information technologies.
To increase the benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could design and implement a national infrastructure plan that contributes to expand and improve the quality of roads, railways, ports, industrial complexes and transmission lines.
As is often the case in economics, there are multiple dimensions in which competitiveness can be measured. Some of them are included in the scoreboard of the European Commission's macroeconomic imbalances procedure. The latest available data of…
We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year due to the expectation of 2.4% for GDP growth vs. 3.0% in 2022. To increase the benefits of nearshoring, public policies will have to contribute to the expansion of infrastructure an…
We expect the trade balance to show a lower deficit this year under the expectation of lower GDP growth when compared to 2022. To promote both nearshoring and FDI flows into Mexico, the country will have to invest more in electrical infrastruct…
We expect the trade balance to show lower deficits or even surpluses in some quarters of next year under a scenario of a significant slowdown of global economic growth. Moreover, nearshoring and relocation of global supply chains will continue supporting FDI flows into Mexico in the medium and long run.
Given the anticipated slowdown in external demand growth for the next quarters and its negative impact on Mexican imports associated with global value chains, it is predictable for the trade balance to show lower deficits.
