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December 6, 2024
BBVA Research forecasts GDP growth in Colombia of 2.0% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2026, driven by recovering domestic demand, lower interest rates, and reduced inflation. Consumption and investment will gain momentum, while the external deficit will be financed by FDI.
December 5, 2024
GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, driven by private consumption in durable goods, semi-durables, and services starting in 2026, and by fixed investment in infrastructure, machinery, and housing. Inflation will be 3.1% in 2026, with lower interest rates strengthening financial conditions.
November 26, 2024
The current account surplus in the third quarter of 2024 was lower than the corresponding figure for the same period of 2023 mainly due to the deficit in the balance on non-oil related goods.
October 1, 2024
Domestic demand will lead Colombia’s economic recovery, driven by improved financial conditions that will strengthen consumption and investment. This will provide a significant boost to sectors such as manufacturing and retail. In the long run, increasing investment will be essential to raise the country’s growth potential.
June 28, 2024
There are a wide number of important economic indicators that are not broadly disseminated when we refer to the economic situation and its forecasts. In this opportunity, we will focus on the most relevant macroeconomic balances: external and fiscal.
June 19, 2024
Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.
June 13, 2024
Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, enabling the Central Bank to expedite rate cuts from the end of the year.
March 7, 2024
Improved financial conditions for households and businesses, facilitated by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation, will pave the way for a gradual economic recovery in Colombia throughout 2024, solidifying by 2025. We project a 1.5% GDP growth in 2024 and a further expansion of 2.8% in 2025.
February 23, 2024
The trade balance had not posted a surplus since 2Q21. Given the stylized fact that the trade balance shows a countercyclical behavior, the trade surplus in 4Q23 is another indicator that suggests that the growth of the Mexican economy slowed down significantly by the end of last year.
November 28, 2023
To allow the country to maximize the economic benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could formulate a national infrastructure plan and favor an industrial policy that enhances investment in renewable energy, electric vehicles and information technologies.
August 28, 2023
To increase the benefits of nearshoring in the medium term, the next federal government could design and implement a national infrastructure plan that contributes to expand and improve the quality of roads, railways, ports, industrial complexes and transmission lines.
July 3, 2023
As is often the case in economics, there are multiple dimensions in which competitiveness can be measured. Some of them are included in the scoreboard of the European Commission's macroeconomic imbalances procedure. The latest available data offer both highs and lows for the Spanish economy.
