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After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a sustainable growth path.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to start easing cycle very gradually in 4Q24 considering high inflation expectations.
The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.
INDEC's monthly national inflation stood at 4.2% in May (276.4% y/y), the lowest in the last 29 months and much lower than expected (BBVA: 5.8% m/m, REM-BCRA: 5.2% m/m). Core inflation was the main downward surprise, reaching 3.7% m/m (277.3% y…
We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monet…
In May, monthly inflation was 0.43% and annual inflation was 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.41%) and below our forecast (0.51%).
The consumer price index contracted 0.09% m/m in May. The reduction in food prices and electricity rates stood out. The interannual rate was 2.0% (2.4% in April) in the center of the Central Bank's target range.
Monthly inflation had not reached values below 10% since October 2023; monthly core inflation (6.3% m/m, 292% y/y) was the lowest in 15 months, and is the key variable to monitor to measure the pace of disinflation in a context of correction of…
Monthly inflation in April was 0.59% and annual inflation 7.16%, close to market analysts' expectations (0.57%, according to Banco de la República's survey) and in line with our estimate (0.60%).
The consumer price index contracted 0.05% MoM in April. The result for the month is explained by supply and seasonal factors. The year-on-year rate was 2.4% (3.0% in March) within the Central Bank's target range.
April 13, 2024
March CPI rose 11.0% m/m and inflation marked the third consecutive monthly deceleration. The exchange rate anchor, the calm of the parallel exchange rates, the fiscal and monetary astringency and the drop in the level of activity are the main factors that explain this result.
In March, monthly inflation was 0.70% and annual inflation was 7.4%, a reduction of around 37 bps compared to February. The result was slightly above market analysts' expectations, who according to the Banco de la República's survey expected a monthly variation of 0.64%.
