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November 13, 2024
This is the lowest monthly value since November 2021, the last month in which monthly inflation started at 2. Prices are moving closer and closer to the official exchange rate peg, which is one of the government's main targets.
November 9, 2024
In October, monthly inflation was -0.13% and annual inflation was 5.41%, below market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.17%). With this, the result is 40 bps below the previous month's figure.
November 4, 2024
The consumer price index decreased 0.09% m/m in October. The result for the month is mainly explained by the decrease in the prices of some foods (normalization of supply). With this result, the interannual inflation rate stood at 2.0% in October, in the center of the BCRP's target range.
October 11, 2024
National inflation was 3.5% MoM (209% YoY) in September, in line with the average expectation of market analysts (BCRA consensus: 3.5%). This is the first time since Feb-22 that monthly inflation has breached the 4.0% floor.
September 2, 2024
July inflation was 0.28% m/m. The result is explained by the increase in the prices of some foods, especially poultry products and tubers, which was explained by supply factors. With this result, the interannual inflation rate stood at 2.0% in August.
August 15, 2024
July national inflation was, as expected, the lowest of the year (4.0% m/m, 263.4% y/y). It was in line with market forecasts (BBVA: 4.1% m/m, Central Bank consensus: 3.9% m/m), although slightly above the Central Bank's forecast (3.7% m/m).
August 9, 2024
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month's figure.
August 1, 2024
The inflation rate for July was 0.24% MoM. This outcome is attributed to the increase in prices of food items such as chicken, corn, and potatoes, as well as higher transportation costs driven by the seasonal impact of national holidays and rising fuel prices. The YoY rate stood at 2.1%, within the target range of the BCRP.
July 23, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations, maintaining a wait and see approach with a hawkish message. They highlight a potential temporary increase in monthly inflation in July, but expect the rise in the underlying inflation trend to be limited.
July 15, 2024
National inflation in June was 4.6% MoM (271.5% YoY) and accelerated with respect to the previous month (4.2% MoM) for the first time in the Milei administration but due to the disparate behaviour of regulated prices in both months. Even so, the value was lower than expected.
