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December 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.24 m/m in November, higher than consensus (2.0%), with no improvement in the underlying inflation trend. Considering November realizations, we evaluate annual consumer inflation is likely to finish the year at around 45% and decline to 26.5% in 2025 on our assumption of an effective policy mix.
November 4, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.88 m/m in September, higher than our expectation and consensus (2.7% vs. 2.5%), while the monthly consumer inflation trend eased only limitedly. We now expect year-end inflation to be nearly 45% and risks on our 2025 year-end forecast of 25% become clearly tilted to the upside.
October 16, 2024
The European Central Bank (ECB) can take satisfaction from recent inflation data from the eurozone. Much of the downside surprise has been due to the drop in oil, but there is also some progress in services prices. Coupled with economic weakness, the scenario is a further interest rate cut.
October 8, 2024
In September, monthly inflation was 0.24% and annual inflation was 5.81%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.27%). With this, the result is 31 bps below the previous month's figure.
October 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.97 m/m in September, higher than our expectation (2.5%). The annual consumer inflation came down below 50% on the back of base effects, while the underlying consumer inflation trend worsened. We expect inflation to decrease to 43% and 25% by the end of 2024 and 2025, respectively.
September 7, 2024
In August, monthly inflation was 0.00% and annual inflation was 6.12%, surprisingly well below market analysts' expectations according to Banco de la República's survey (0.24%). With this, the result is 74 bps below the previous month's figure and accelerates the pace of adjustments of previous months.
September 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by %2.47 m/m in August, higher than our expectation (2.2%) and consensus (2.3%). As a result, annual consumer inflation came down to 51.9% from 61.8% previously. We forecast inflation trend to improve; reaching 1.5-2% monthly in 4Q24 and finish the year annually at 43% in 2024 and 25% in 2025.
August 15, 2024
July national inflation was, as expected, the lowest of the year (4.0% m/m, 263.4% y/y). It was in line with market forecasts (BBVA: 4.1% m/m, Central Bank consensus: 3.9% m/m), although slightly above the Central Bank's forecast (3.7% m/m).
August 9, 2024
In July, monthly inflation was 0.20% and annual inflation was 6.86%, close to market analysts' expectations, according to Banco de la República's survey (0.28%) and our forecast (0.24%). With this, the result is 32 bps below the previous month's figure.
August 5, 2024
Consumer inflation increased by 3.23% m/m in July, slightly lower than our expectation, while the annual inflation declined to 61.8% from 72% in June on favorable base effect. We expect the annual inflation to decline below %50 as of September and fall further to 43% at the end of 2024.
July 9, 2024
In June, monthly inflation was 0.32%, and annual inflation was 7.18%, slightly higher than the previous month's figure. The result was close to the expectations of market analysts who, according to Banco de la República's survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.28%.
July 3, 2024
Consumer prices rose by 1.64% m/m in June, well below our expectation (2.24%), which led to an annual inflation of 71.60%. We expect the monthly consumer inflation trend to continue to weaken, driving the annual inflation down to 45-50% range by September and to 43% by the end of 2024.
