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November 21, 2024
The CBRT kept the policy rate at 50% with important changes in their communication, signaling an easing cycle as early as December. We believe the CBRT will be required to start with very cautious steps and expect the first rate cut in December with 100bps.
October 17, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate, keeping a tone similar to September MPC, despite the negative surprise of the September inflation. We maintain our first rate cut expectation in December with a 250 bps cut, where the timing and magnitude would depend on how the monthly inflation trend is improving.
September 19, 2024
The Central Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 50%. The bank smoothed its tone by changing the statement that monetary policy will be tightened when necessary to that monetary policy tools will be used effectively. Still, they emphasize inflation expectations and pricing behaviors as risks to the disinflation.
August 20, 2024
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the policy rate at 50% in line with the expectations. They repeat their commitment to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macro-prudential measures if needed.
August 12, 2021
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
July 14, 2021
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in October and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
August 4, 2020
Consumer prices increased by 0.58% in July, this time surprising on the downside (1% BBVA Research vs. 0.8% Consensus). Led by the positive base effects, annual inflation decelerated to 11.76% from 12.62% in June. We expect consumer inflation to stay at two-digits and to be realized at 10% at the end of the year
November 4, 2019
Consumer prices increased by 2.0% mom in October, in line with median market expectation but slightly higher than ours (2.0%, Bloomberg vs 1.8%, BBVA). Annual inflation decreased further to 8.55% from 9.3% in September on the back of strong favorable base effect . We expect year end annual inflation to materialize as 11.8%.
October 3, 2019
Consumer prices increased by 0.99% mom in September lower than the median consensus (1.38%, Bloomberg and BBVA Research). Hence, annual inflation decreased to one digit level of 9.3% from 15% in August, the lowest level since January 2017. We expect annual inflation to get closer to 12.5% at the end of the year.
July 3, 2019
Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.
January 16, 2019
The Central Bank (CBRT) kept its policy rate (one-week repo, 24%) unchanged in line with expectations. We consider the decision as the right one as it supports the disinflation path and reinforces credibility. In our view, the CBRT should wait for June (when the recovery in inflation becomes more obvious) to start an easing cycle.
