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Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecasts.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commitment to reduce the public deficit by 2.9 points of GDP next year.
While members continued to state that “the disinflation process is expected to continue,” the stickiness of core services inflation drove Banxico to revise up its inflation forecasts after considering that “inflationary shocks are foreseen to t…
The favorable core inflation trend gives Banxico room to continue lowering the policy rate, which will remain tight during 2024-25 despite a gradual rate cut cycle, but we now expect Banxico to pause the rate cut cycle this week and take rates …
This first rate cut marks the start of a long and gradual easing cycle that will most likely keep the monetary policy stance restrictive throughout this year and next even if Banxico cuts the policy rate without skipping any meeting in the rema…
Banxico’s board had already signaled that a rate cut next week was likely. We think that is a done deal following this month’s inflation prints. We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25 bps, to 11.00%. The focus will be on the signals about the upcoming rate-cut cycle.
This Agenda presents the 2024 dissemination schedule for economic indicators and relevant monetary policy events in Mexico and the US; dates of important events such as the meetings of various relevant international entities such as: World Economic Forum, World Bank and the IMF
A key change in the forward guidance signals that Banxico is getting ready to start a rate cut cycle as “in the next monetary policy meetings, it will assess, depending on available information, the possibility of adjusting the reference rate.”
Banxico is set to hold the policy rate at 11.25% at this meeting amid core services inflation stickiness, but will likely continue to pave the way to cut it as soon as in the following meeting in March.
Although we continue to think that Banxico should not skip rate cuts at any meetings next year, its cautiousness, hawkishness, and recent hints suggest that consecutive rate cuts are unlikely at the start of the gradual easing cycle.
After signaling in September that the policy rate was set to remain unchanged “for an extended period,” Banxico now says that it must be kept unchanged “for some time.”
Although we continue to expect the beginning of a rate cut cycle in 1Q24, Banxico’s cautiousness and hawkishness are significantly tilting the risks towards a further delay in the start of this cycle.
