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May 16, 2018
April economic indicators announced today point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, fixed asset investment and retail sales both dropped from the previous readings, although industrial production maintained its momentum. This suggests that growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US.
November 28, 2017
Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.
