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January 23, 2025
The Central Bank (CBRT) lowered the policy rate by another rate cut of 250 bps to 45%, in line with market and our expectations. The bank also signaled that it may introduce new tools to sterilize the increasing excess TL liquidity in the market.
January 23, 2025
In 2024, growth is revised upwards due to the boost in domestic consumption and tourism. The end of the drought, the improvement of the European economy, and the reduction of interest rates will help sustain growth, affected by the impact of the dana and possible changes in tariff policy in the US.
January 20, 2025
Economic growth, inequality, and zero-sum thinking form a triangle that has shaped societies over the years. The historical transition from a subsistence economy to one of sustained growth has transformed social perceptions of wealth and how it is distributed.
January 20, 2025
Amid fears of escalating US-China tensions in Trump 2.0, questions about Hong Kong's USD peg have emerged. The HKMA remains committed, supported by strong reserves and political backing. While abandoning the peg is unlikely short-term, external shocks and geopolitical shifts highlight the need for long-term alternatives.
January 17, 2025
Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.
January 15, 2025
Activity advanced 3.9% year-on-year in November. By productive sectors, the primary component stood out, and within this the growth of the fishing sector stands out, which is due to the greater extraction of anchovy. This also had a significant positive impact on primary manufacturing, which processes this resource.
January 14, 2025
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
January 14, 2025
Formal employment closed the year with an annual variation of 1.0%, well below expectations and the average of the last three years. Sectors such as manufacturing and construction performed poorly or negatively, playing key roles in this sharp slowdown.
