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April 14, 2025
Formal employment in Mexico shows clear signs of deceleration, reflecting an adverse economic environment marked by domestic and global uncertainties. Although real wages have remained somewhat resilient, job creation faces significant pressures that negatively impact the total wage bill.
April 14, 2025
The United States' trade strategy aims to reduce the nation’s bilateral trade deficits to zero. This target is difficult to achieve and the product of a misdiagnosis, which is currently eroding global growth and undermining stability.
April 14, 2025
The temporary suspension of some of the measures has brought relief, but Europe and Spain have taken the opportunity to outline their strategy for addressing the increase in trade barriers and potentially more-negative scenarios.
April 11, 2025
In its April meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
April 9, 2025
The public deficit looks to have ended 2024 at 2.8% of GDP (excluding the funds set aside to support the victims of the flash floods that struck in October). It is exactly the size of the fiscal imbalance recorded back in 2019.
April 8, 2025
In March 2025 Colombia's total inflation decreased to an annual rate of 5.1% breaking a four-month period of stability or slight increase. This moderation was primarily driven by a decline in non-food inflation, particularly due to the regulated basket. March monthly inflation was 0.52% falling below analysts' expectations.
April 7, 2025
The last months of 2024 gave some glimpses of the challenges Latam could face in the coming years. However, looking beyond the first quarter of 2025, some—albeit not all—of these warning signs have faded.
April 7, 2025
In the 21st century, history is again being challenged by a wave of protectionism from the United States. President Donald Trump has just announced a barrage of tariffs that marks the country's biggest protectionist offensive in almost a century.
April 7, 2025
The latest Social Security enrollment figures for March come as welcome news for the Spanish economy, yet they are also a timely reminder that job creation alone is not enough in itself: we also need it to be more productive.
April 4, 2025
The Banco de la República kept its interest rate unchanged in March, in a context of mixed variables surrounding the decision. In the end, the Bank prioritized economic stability, offering a significant demonstration of independence and technical expertise.
April 4, 2025
This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of carbon price shocks (EU-ETS) via a SVAR with Narrative Sign Restrictions. Facilitating identification and isolating shocks from demand factors, results indicate a stronger economic impact than previous carbon policy studies, but milder than recent works focused on the EU-ETS.
April 3, 2025
Consumer inflation rose by 2.46% m/m, lower than both our expectation (3%) and the market consensus (2.9%), driving annual inflation down to 38.1%. We have revised our 2025 year-end inflation forecast to 32% from 29% on the expected pass-through from the recent currency depreciation.
