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March 25, 2025
Banxico could keep the door open to a third 50bp cut in May before slowing down to more cautious 25bp adjustments. This would strengthen our expectation that Banxico will bring down the policy rate to a below-consensus 7.5% by the end of this year.
March 24, 2025
In the final quarter of 2024, Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States had a negative impact on the euro. Aggressive protectionist policies and increased fiscal stimulus in the country were expected to push the dollar higher.
March 19, 2025
Powell signaled in the Q&A two complementary factors behind unchanged interest rate projections, which still point to 50bp worth of rate cuts later this year: i) weaker growth but higher inflation which “[...] kind of balance each other out”; and ii) uncertainty.
March 17, 2025
GDP grew 4.1% year-on-year in January. By productive sector, the primary component stood out (up 4.4%) due to the strong expansion of the fishing sector and the resulting expansion of primary manufacturing. The non-primary component grew 3.2%.
March 17, 2025
We do not expect either the statement or Powell to hint at a possible rate cut soon amid heightened downside risks to growth and instead expect both to convey that amid lingering uncertainty the Fed remains comfortable in its current wait-and-see mode and is in “no hurry” to resume the rate cut cycle.
March 14, 2025
In its March meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate at 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
March 13, 2025
Colombia’s economy will grow 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026, driven by consumption and investment. Inflation will continue declining, though housing and energy costs will remain rigid. Monetary policy will gradually lower rates, while the external deficit will widen due to rising imports and lower remittance inflows.
March 4, 2025
We estimate the EUR/USD equilibrium exchange rate using a holistic approach that distinguishes between the strengths of the euro and the dollar. Our analysis shows that the current misalignment is due to an overvalued dollar, while the euro remains close to equilibrium, with its role as a reserve currency slightly reduced.
February 27, 2025
A recent string of weak data together with the postponement of tariffs and a less worrisome fiscal bill than feared likely eased market participants’ bets of a scenario in which the Fed keeps interest rates at their current level for the whole year.
February 13, 2025
Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.
February 6, 2025
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
