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Banrep's Board maintained the pace of rate cuts of the last meetings, with a 50bp reduction in June, accumulating a total of 200bp since it began its downward rate cycle in December 2023. The decision was split, with 4 members in favor of the 50bp reduction, two members in favor of a 75bp reduction.
Board members voted 4-1 to hold rates steady at 11.00%. The fact that the decision wasn’t unanimous came as a bit of surprise considering the recent peso weakening and that Banxico was set to revise up its short-term headline inflation forecasts.
The Central Bank kept the policy rate at 50% in line with expectations. We expect that annual inflation will come down to 45-50% by September on base effects before ending the year at 43%. We believe that there would be only a limited room to s…
Mid- and long-term Treasury yields eased further from their late-April’s highs on a less hawkish than expected Fed in this month’s meeting, and fresh signs that the inflation jump in 1Q will prove transitory.
Banxico will most likely suggest it will proceed with caution, at least until more information is available about the judicial reform and the type of fiscal adjustment that will be implemented next year to fulfill the federal government’s commi…
The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.
In its June decision, the Board of the Central Bank decided maintain the reference rate at 5.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains in restrictive territory.
With the fed funds rate at its peak, growing chances of disinflation resuming in 2Q24 and more balanced risks, the Fed is likely to remain cautious in determining the timing of a first rate cut.
Intermeeting developments will likely not change the already-conveyed Fed message that more good data is needed to gain enough confidence in progress toward 2% inflation; the debate around the policy stance will continue to focus on for how lon…
No major news has come out today as the rate cut was universally expected and the ECB does not want to pre-commit to the path of future cuts. We still expect two further cuts this year, in September and December, if there are no major surprises…
The ECB will most likely lower its interest rates at its monetary policy meeting this week. This decision has long been anticipated, suggested at previous meetings, and even clearly accepted in statements by the more hawkish members of the Governing Council.
Policy rate expectations and Treasury yields eased from their late-April’s highs on softer employment and inflation data released recently.
