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February 13, 2025
Spanish banks are rapidly translating the reduction in official interest rates to new lending operations' interest rates, which benefits borrowers. In the case of deposits, the transmission is slightly slower than in the hiking cycle, which benefits depositors.
February 6, 2025
It unequivocally signaled that it remains set to keep cutting rates steadily ahead and hinted that in the absence of any major events, it is likely to consider additional 50bp cuts at upcoming meetings.
February 5, 2025
Below 4.0% inflation, easing core services inflation, softer aggregate demand, a cooling labor market, a peso that continues to hold up, and an overly restrictive monetary policy stance, keep the door wide open for a larger 50bp cut.
January 30, 2025
The ECB adopted a relatively dovish stance today while implementing the widely expected rate cut, signaling the possibility of further reductions without committing to a specific terminal level. This approach aligns with the continued progress in disinflation and the subdued momentum of the Eurozone economy.
January 30, 2025
Signs that core inflation is back on trend to 2% could open the door for another cut in March, but the implementation of policies that could spark an upward trend in inflation, even if temporary, could imply a more extended pause.
January 27, 2025
The risk has grown that the Fed could keep rates on hold for more than one meeting as the nature and purpose of the upcoming tariffs is still unknown (i.e., their magnitude, their temporary or permanent nature, used mostly as a negotiating tool?).
January 23, 2025
Further easing of at most 50 bps by year-end is still on the table, but the Fed will likely stay on the sidelines while the uncertainty around renewed immigration policies lingers and until it knows if Trump follows through on his plans to impose tariffs.
January 14, 2025
This aligns with market expectations, as outlined by BBVA (2.8%) and REM-BCRA (2.7%), and reflects a slight increase from November's rate of 2.4%. Consequently, the average price increase in the final quarter of the year was 2.6% MoM.
January 10, 2025
In its January meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains slightly above neutral.
