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December 17, 2024
Although we think there is a 40% chance of a 50bp cut, the Board will most likely end sticking to another 25bp cut. A 50bp rate cut would be a sound policy decision considering the excessively restrictive real ex-ante rate and the progress of disinflation.
December 16, 2024
Although they will continue to formally stay out of the debate around Trump 2.0, it is likely that several FOMC participants have begun to incorporate into their thinking some of the obvious effects of potential trade, fiscal and immigration policies.
December 16, 2024
2024 has been less challenging for central banks as the disinflation process consolidates, building confidence in achieving the 2% inflation target. In 2025, the challenges will be greater and the debates more intense.
December 13, 2024
In its December meeting, the Board of the Central Bank kept the reference interest rate at 5.00%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, remains contractionary.
December 12, 2024
As expected, today the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bp and revised down growth and inflation forecasts. Lagarde did not give many clues on the next steps but reaffirmed that the disinflationary process is on track. We maintain four more cuts for the first half of 2025 to 2% (depo).
November 28, 2024
Part of the rise in Treasury yields is also explained by a higher term premium, which has likely been driven by greater uncertainty around the US inflation and fiscal outlook in the following years amid Trump’s potential trade, tax and migration policies.
November 15, 2024
A majority will remain determined to continue the easing cycle over the coming months, but we now expect Banxico to lower the policy rate to 8.00% by the end of next year (up from our previous 7.50% forecast).
November 12, 2024
Banxico is likely set to cut the policy rate by 25 bps this week in a backdrop of easing core services inflation, which is starting to turn a corner amid a challenging context for economic activity.
November 8, 2024
In its November meeting, the Board of the Central Bank decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the real ex-ante reference rate, remains above neutral.
November 8, 2024
We continue to think that the rate cut cycle still has legs, but following the outcome of the election the Fed will likely end the cycle sooner than previously thought on greater inflationary challenges under Trump’s potential policies.
November 5, 2024
FOMC members will likely continue to signal that their plan continues to be a gradual normalization of the fed funds rate. They are likely to agree to continue normalizing the monetary stance with more cautious 25bp rate cuts.
