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October 24, 2024
This Observatory evaluates the factors explaining the cyclical behavior of GDP and private consumption in Spain up to Q2 2024. It analyzes the supply and demand factors behind the GDP per working-age person (PET) gap of -1.3 pp from its trend level and the weaker performance of consumption compared to pre-pandemic levels.
April 1, 2024
The German Bund 10Y term premium turned positive in the aftermath of the pandemic, boosted by the upward trend in the uncertainty surrounding inflation as well as spillover effects from a higher US term-premium. Furthermore, Euro Area growth uncertainty and moderation in ECB bond purchases also contributed to the upside.
March 4, 2024
Countries that expand their climate policy portfolio exhibit higher climate change mitigation patent filings, low carbon technology trade flows, and green foreign direct investment flows. The coordination and cooperation of international policies is also relevant, showcasing evidence of potential climate policy spillovers.
February 16, 2024
The increasing development of short-term climate scenarios is driven by enhanced supervisory expectation for a comprehensive understanding of the effects of climate change. Their design is a work in progress blending narratives, shocks and modeling tools.
January 10, 2024
Agencies’ ratings have remained relatively stable during 2023. Changes have been mostly positive in peripheral Europe, while US and France were downgraded by Fitch. The rating cycle has been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), mainly due to specific idiosyncratic vulnerabilities.
September 16, 2023
The BBVA GDP Tracker, which is a real-time estimation tool for economic activity, anticipates the beginning of a slow recovery of GDP from September 2023. However, this upturn will come from low levels of economic growth, which are well below the country's historical average.
December 15, 2022
Agency’s ratings have remained stable or changes have been positive in Advanced Economies (AE), despite the negative impact of the war in Ukraine and the monetary policy tightening. On the contrary, rating changes have been mostly negative for Emerging Economies (EE), although mainly due to idiosyncratic factors.
October 25, 2022
This Working Paper offers rigorous statistical evidence on the influence of the reduction in mobility, derived from the COVID-19 pandemic, on the concentration levels of pollutants that affect air quality in the Metropolitan Area of the Valley of Mexico.
September 6, 2022
The Multidimensional Manufacturing Index (MMI) is a barometer of the production in this sector that parsimoniously captures information from a broad set of variables that reflects activity in the value chains between Mexico and the US.
August 18, 2022
The Current Account of the BoP includes the trade balance and the net dividend and interest payments abroad. A current account deficit implies that the country is a net debtor to the rest of the world. An econometric model is used to estimate the structural Current Account balance of Argentina and its long-term determinants
April 20, 2022
The transmission lag of monetary policy to the price level is five and two quarters for the US and Mexican economies, respectively. A surprise of 50 basis points in the reference rate would reduce the price level by 0.54% and 0.14% in the US and Mexico, respectively.
March 22, 2022
The significant increase in the international price of gasoline due to the war between Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse impact on the revenue derived from excise taxes on gasoline and diesel.
