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    Spain | What can 240,000 new credit transactions tell us about the impact of NGEU funds?

    Published on Tuesday, March 18, 2025 | Updated on Friday, March 21, 2025

    Document number 25/03

    Big Data techniques used

    Spain | What can 240,000 new credit transactions tell us about the impact of NGEU funds?

    Summary

    Using a panel data local projections model and controlling for firm characteristics, procurement bid attributes, and macroeconomic conditions, the study estimates the dynamic effects of procurement awards on new lending, a more precise measure than the change in the stock of credit.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • The empirical evidence confirms that public procurement awards significantly increase new lending, with NGEU-funded contracts generating stronger credit expansion than traditional procurement during the recent period.
    • The results show that the impact of NGEU procurement programs aligns closely with historical procurement impacts, with differences driven mainly by lower utilization rates.
    • Moreover, integrating high-frequency financial data with procurement records highlights the potential of Big Data in refining public policy design.

    Geographies

    Topics

    Authors

    Alvaro Ortiz BBVA Research - Head of Analysis with Big Data
    Tomasa Rodrigo BBVA Research - Lead Economist
    David Sarasa Flores BBVA Research - Economist
    Pedro Torinos Cognodata - External partner
    Sirenia Vázquez BBVA Research - Principal Economist

    Documents and files

    Report (PDF)

    What Can 240,000 New Credit Transactions Tell Us About the Impact of NGEU Funds?

    English - March 21, 2025

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