We expect the BCB to maintain the Selic at its next meeting, in line with the downside inflation surprise

Brazilian inflation in April surprised to the downside although the annual figure continued to trend up. The last MP minutes in Mexico suggest that the balance of risks to inflation remained unchanged while balance of risks to growth improved slightly. The consensus among members is that the output gap is still large. We expect Banxico to remain on hold until 2H15. Minutes in Colombia express optimism on activity and inflation converging towards target.

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