We estimate quarterly GDP growth in 4Q14 of 0.8%, in line with annual growth of 2.1% in 2014

Summary

On 20 February the INEGI will publish the fourth quarter 2014 GDP figure. After growth of 0.5% in the third quarter, we estimate that the Mexican economy will have performed better, with GDP growth of nearly 0.8% QoQ in the fourth quarter. The main components underpinning said growth are, on the one hand, the moderate increase in industrial production over October, November and December (0.4%, 0.3% and -0.3% MoM, sa, respectively), and positive performance by services in October and November (0.7% and 0.3% MoM, sa, respectively); on the other hand, the improvement in manufacturing exports over the same months (10.0%, -14.1% and 8.8% MoM respectively). If this increased economic activity is confirmed, we may see an annual growth rate for 2014 of nearly 2.1%, sa

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