US | The labor market is coming into a better balance

Summary

Despite the labor market's resilience, the slowdown in job creation in 2023 is reflected by the 2.7 million additional jobs, considerably fewer than the previous year. The unemployment rate in December remained at 3.7%, largely explained by the decline in the labor force.

Key points

• Key points:
• Despite robust job growth, December's data, though surpassing the expected 170,000 with a significant increase of 226,000, indicates some weakness. This is particularly notable given the downward revisions of 71,000 jobs for October and November.
• The job openings rate decreases gradually, and the plans to increase employment remain stable; only the hard-to-fill jobs show an upward trend.
• Real wages in November showed positive year-on-year growth of 0.9%, and average hourly earnings in December exhibited a 4.1% YoY growth.
• The slowing trend in the labor market and decreasing job openings suggest a slower pace of wage growth in the future.
• The labor market is expected to normalize with moderate wage growth and a moderate increase in the unemployment rate is anticipated.

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