US | Spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank: tense calm

Summary

This week the meetings organized each year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are taking place, just a few weeks after episodes of financial turbulence occurred.

Key points

• Key points:
• These episodes were caused by the intervention of Silicon Valley Bank in the United States and the forced sale of Credit Suisse in Europe.
• There is some peace of mind because after these banking problems, it has been possible, at least for now, to calm the waters in the main banking systems.
• In particular, no significant deposit outflows have been taking place . However, bank share prices have fallen, which increases their costs of raising capital, which in turn will result in a lower supply of credit.
• Because of this, in the United States, a recession is more likely today than it was a month ago. It should be a shallow and short-lasting one, but there are significant risks on the horizon.

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