United Kingdom | The slight post-Brexit recession will foster more accommodative policies

Summary

The easing of financial stresses after the Brexit is positive, but the high uncertainty and the sharp decline in confidence will probably cause a slight recession in 2H16, which will lead to ease the monetary policy in August and to postpone the balancing of the budget. We revise our GDP growth forecast downwards by -0.3pp for 2016 (1.5%) and -1.5pp in 2017 (0.4%).

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