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    U.S. | Remarkable transition from longest expansion in modern history to economic malaise

    Published on Wednesday, April 29, 2020 | Updated on Thursday, April 30, 2020

    U.S. | Remarkable transition from longest expansion in modern history to economic malaise

    Summary

    Today’s advanced report showed that real quarterly GDP growth decreased by 4.8% in 1Q20 on an annualized basis; in line with our forecast of 4.7%. The slowdown will only mark the beginning of the economic deterioration associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, as the drop in 2Q20 will be several times larger.

    Key points

    • Key points:
    • We are maintaining our view that economic activity will contract 4.4% in 2020 before growing 3.4% in 2021
    • Without significant improvement in therapeutics, testing and monitoring, or without viable and scalable vaccines, risks will remain skewed to the downside

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    Topics

    Authors

    Nathaniel Karp
    Boyd Nash-Stacey

    Documents and files

    Report (PDF)

    200429_EEUU_PIB_1T20.pdf

    Spanish - April 29, 2020

    Report (PDF)

    200429_US_GDP_1Q20.pdf

    English - April 29, 2020

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