U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2019
Published on Wednesday, December 11, 2019 | Updated on Tuesday, December 17, 2019
U.S. Recession Risk Monitor. December 2019
Summary
Probability of recession in 12 months at one-year lows (30%). Financial conditions remain solid after Fed “mid-cycle” adjustment. Strong household finances supporting consumption.
Key points
- Key points:
- Slight pullback in riskier business lending, but tail risks remain
- Key concerns: trade frictions, market liquidity & equity price correction
- Despite industrial recession in advanced economics, global system risks muted
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Global
Topics
Tags
Authors
Nathaniel Karp
Boyd Nash-Stacey
Documents and files
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