U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse. June 2020

Summary

Baseline assumes real GDP declines by 4.4% in 2020. Peak unemployment reached, but risks to the labor market remain. Disinflationary headwinds abate, but inflation to remain low in 2020. Fed to keep rates at the Zero Lower Bound, balance sheet growth to continue.

Key points

• Key points:
• Long-term yields to remain low
• Oil prices will stay near current levels for the reminder of the year
• Uncertainty remains over the depth and duration of the crisis
• Risks tilted to the downside, although the worst of the crisis likely behind us

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