U.S. Elections Chartbook. October 2020

Summary

Motivating disaffected voters in key swing states could determine the election. Preliminary data suggests Democrats have commanding lead in early mail-in voting. Available early in-person voting shows Republicans have an edge.

Key points

• Key points:
• According to our model, third-party forecasts and the latest odds, Democrats are expected to win White House, keep control of House and narrowly win back Senate
• Election outcome could increase financial market volatility albeit temporarily
• Secular trends more important for the economy than who controls the White House

Geographies

Topics

Tags