U.S. Economic Outlook. November 2018

Summary

Modest upside risk to growth in 2018, baseline for 2019 unchanged but risks tilted to the downside. Although models suggest low risk of recession, qualitative analysis indicates downside risks are increasing. FOMC remains poised to raise rates in December. Baseline assumes 3 additional increases in 2019. Labor market slack minimal, as unemployment rate nears 50 year lows.

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