U.S. Economic Outlook. May 2019

GDP growth 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model-based recessions projections suggest probability around 60%. Low likelihood of Fed rate hike in 2019. Labor market improving in spite growing risks to the outlook. Core inflation stable, headline trending upwards.

Key points

• Key points:
• Current yield curve dynamics mainly driven by flight to safety.
• Geopolitics pressuring oil prices; short-term risks tilted to the upside.

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