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Published on Tuesday, March 26, 2019 | Updated on Wednesday, March 27, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. March 2019

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Summary

GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model based recession probability reaching troubling levels, growth outlook also tilted to the downside. Probability of Fed rate hike in 2019 diminished; balance sheet normalization to end in September. Labor market signals remain mixed after government shutdown. Core inflation stable, headline below 2.0% in 2019.