U.S. Economic Outlook. June 2019
Published on Tuesday, July 2, 2019 | Updated on Saturday, July 6, 2019
U.S. Economic Outlook. June 2019
Summary
Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks to downside growing. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 60% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Inflation outlook in question with core PCE persistently below target. Fed preparing markets for rate cuts in 3Q19.
Key points
- Key points:
- Yield curve dynamics mainly driven by flight to safety and dovish monetary policy expectations
- Weaker demand pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical risks remain
Geographies
- Geography Tags
- Global
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis
Tags
- Tags
- Inflation
- GDP
- Interest rates
Authors
Boyd Nash-Stacey
Documents and files
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