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Published on Friday, March 1, 2019 | Updated on Monday, March 4, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. February 2019

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Summary

GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Risk of recession remains elevated. Fed to delay raising rates until 4Q19; operational framework and balance sheet strategy adjusted. Labor market conditions remain auspicious. Core inflation to remain stable, modest rebound in energy prices to lift headline. 10-year Treasury to follow shallower path.