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Published on Saturday, December 22, 2018 | Updated on Monday, December 24, 2018

U.S. Economic Outlook. December 2018

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Summary

GDP growth outlook for 2019 and beyond tilted to the downside. Models suggest rising risk of recession, qualitative analysis indicates downside risks are also increasing. FOMC remains poised to raise rates in December. Likelihood for shallower rate path in 2019 rising. Labor market slack minimal; unemployment rate trending near 50 year lows.