U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2019

Summary

Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.

Key points

• Key points:
• Fed debating if further rate cuts are needed
• Global weakness and policy uncertainty push term premium to record lows
• Weaker demand pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical risks remain

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