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Published on Thursday, April 25, 2019 | Updated on Friday, April 26, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. April 2019

GDP growth 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model based recession probability above 50%. Probability of Fed rate hike in 2019 diminished; quantitative tightening end in September. Labor market stabilizes after whipsawing. Core inflation stable, headline below 2.0% in 2019. Short-lived technical yield curve inversion, but signaling power altered by structural changes.