U.S.| 3Q20 GDP:Strong policy support drives historic rebound in GDP,but headwinds emerging

Summary

The U.S. economy showed astounding resiliency in the 3Q20. Strong monetary, fiscal and administrative support from the federal government, less restrictive lockdown measures and stronger impetus to end distancing measures contributed to the rebound.

Key points

• Key points:
• GDP growth bounced back from a 31.4% QoQa nosedive in 2Q20 with a 33.1%QoQa gain in 3Q20
• The strong rebound in 3Q20 adds an upside bias to our annual average forecast
• The positive shock from fiscal stimulus to income and savings is fading
• The rising number of Covid-19 hotspots and weakness in high-frequency indicators suggests growth could slow considerably in 4Q20

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