Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 4 October 2024

The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits decelerated in the first week of October from 1% to 0.4% due to both consumer and commercial credits in the overall sector. The upward move in total credits’ both 4 week and 13w trend rates imply though only a moderation in credit growth.

Key points

• Key points:
• TL commercial credits’ weekly growth decelerated after the previous 2 weeks’ strong growth rates. The deceleration was due to both SME and non-SME lending in the sector. The trend rates in both segments are moving up to around 20%.
• Deceleration in consumer credits was mainly led by private banks, and in all subsegments of consumer credits. Consumer credit card growth was also negative in private banks whereas they continued to grow at close to 4% w-o-w in public banks which overall moves up the credit cards’ trend rate. The recent regulations of the CBRT are expected to lower these levels by squeezing consumption in high card limits as of November.
• FC credits’ weekly growth was negative last week (also due to both SME and non-SME lending in the sector) causing a significant downward move in its trend rate, the lowest level since the introduction of monthly caps in this credit segment in April.
• TL commercial credit rates fell only by 6bps to 56.9% and spreads in this segment remain negative since May compared to spreads in FC commercial credits hovering around 6-7%. Consumer credit rates rose by 25bps to 67.7% due to rise in general purpose loan rates
• The Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio of the sector rose to 1.74%. The NPL amount of the sector rose by almost 40% year to date. The NPL ratio of consumer credit cards is at 2.7% with steady weekly increases. The ratio remains stable at 1.6% for commercial credits, being historically low and posing no risk in this segment yet. This finding is also emphasized in the latest CBRT analysis published in their blog.

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