Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 27 September 2024
Published on Friday, October 4, 2024
Türkiye: Weekly Banking Tracker, 27 September 2024
The weekly growth of FX-adjusted credits accelerated in the last week of September from 0.3% to almost 1% due to strong increase in consumer credits in the overall sector. The 13w trend of credit growth as of end of 3Q’24 implies some deceleration with 25% compared to 30% in 2Q’24 (35% 1Q’24).
Key points
- Key points:
- TL commercial credits’ weekly growth continued to increase the third week in a row with private banks’ both SME and non-SME lending. Its 13w trend shows strong acceleration in the 3.quarter compared to 2Q with SME lending being the driver, however being at much lower levels compared to previous years.
- Regarding consumer credits, after previous week’s contraction, weekly growth was strong in both public and private banks led by general purpose loans. Weekly growth in consumer credit cards was strong with 3% in the sector as well. Since the end of 1Q24, consumer credits’ 13w trend has been showing only slight deceleration with the rate seeming sticky around 27%.
- FC credits’ weekly growth decelerated thanks to both SME and non-SME lending in the sector. Although still being at historically high levels, its trend rate implies some modest deceleration in the aftermath of further tightening decision of the CBRT in May’24.
- TL Commercial credit rates continued to rise by 200bps to 57% improving the spreads in this segment which however continue to be negative since May’24 compared to spreads in FC commercial credits hovering around 6%-7%. Yesterday’s (03/10) September CPI data (3%) realized higher than the market consensus (2.2%) which also partly showed the resilience in domestic demand. Hence, the CBRT may choose not to start with rate cuts before next year keeping the rates higher for longer.
- The NPL ratio of consumer credit cards in both public and private banks rose sharply from 1.5% in 1Q’24 to almost 3% as of end of 3Q’24 with steady weekly increases. Last week’s BRSA decision on the availability of restructuring consumer credit card debts up to 5 years is expected to decelerate the NPL inflows in this segment.