Türkiye | Tracking Sectoral GDP with Big Data and Nowcasting Models

Summary

We develop big data-based, high-frequency sectoral indicators using bank transaction data to nowcast real-time sectoral GDP growth, enhancing accuracy through modeling techniques and strong alignment with official statistics.

Key points

• Key points:
• We have started to produce big data supply indicators to monitor real time economic activity in sectoral detail with high frequency and granular data through turnover transactions of Garanti BBVA customers.
• We also integrate our big data sectorial indicators in nowcasting models together with other relevant high frequency data in order to enhance the accuracy of our analysis on sectoral economic activity.
• In backtests using our full sample, our nowcasts for the industry and services sectors show relatively stronger performance, while the construction sector exhibits greater volatility.
• Since industry and services account for approximately 80% of non-agricultural output, our aggregated GDP nowcast closely mirrors official data, offering a robust early signal.
• Given the high frequency data so far, we nowcast nearly 3% y/y non-agricultural GDP growth for 1Q25, with services making a notably strong contribution.

Geographies

Topics

Tags