Türkiye | Rapid recovery signals in activity

Summary

Activity indicators signaled the continuation of weakness till late Dec22 but starting from thereafter early figures indicate the reversal of the recent deceleration. We forecast 5-5.5% GDP growth in 2022 and a very strong start to the year with near 2% q/q growth rate in 1Q23. We expect GDP growth to be 3% in 2023.

Key points

• Key points:
• In seasonal and calendar adjusted series, IP shrank by 1.1% m/m in Nov22 on the back of a broad-based contraction in subcomponents but with a clear downward impact from intermediate goods production showing spill-over effects from both weaker external and domestic demand.
• When adding other sectors performances via turnover indices, we can confirm the overall weakness till Dec22, which seems to start to reverse as signaled by the early indicators.
• On the demand side, the main driver of the growth continues to be private consumption, which we expect to be further boosted by the recent wage hikes, early retirement bonuses and other populist measures such as energy price reductions.
• Our weekly GDP tracker nowcasts yearly GDP growth rates of above 5% by late Dec22 and our monthly GDP indicator confirms this trend with quarterly y/y growth rate of near 5% by Feb23.
• We expect the adjustment to start taking place after elections, when the lagged effects might affect next year more clearly on the negative side.

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