Türkiye | Food Security Outlook

Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these risk factors, drawing policy suggestions for improving food security of Türkiye.

Key points

• Key points:
• Türkiye’s food security index has improved slower than its counterparts, with all the scores below the OECD average with the highest gap in affordability.
• While cereals cover the majority of agricultural product imports, the top 3 exporters of strategic cereals (wheat, barley and maize) to Türkiye are Russia, Ukraine and Egypt.
• While fertilizer costs, energy prices and animal feedstuff put pressure on producer prices, a 10% increase in the exchange rate and international food prices have a 2pp and 0.6pp impact on food inflation. Therefore, substituting certain imports with domestic production and currency stabilization are crucial to reduce food inflation.
• Climate-smart and tech-based policies aiming higher value added along with higher efficiency in production and higher purchasing power for farmers would bring improvements in food security outlook. Land consolidation and contract farming might help allow more corporate players, promote planned production and boost capital spending.
• High level of food waste in Türkiye presents both a potential environmental threat and a “green” opportunity for biogas.

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