Türkiye | Fast recovery signals after the quakes

Summary

Industrial production (IP) production grew 7.0% y/y in January (vs. 4.6% expected and 3.9% market consensus). Our big data indicators started to signal a quick recovery to their pre-quake levels. Hence, we maintain our 2023 GDP forecast of 3%, assuming a manageable normalization from the current policies.

Key points

• Key points:
• Seasonal and calendar adjusted series rose by 1.9% m/m in Jan23 (vs. 1.7% m/m in Dec22) on the back of accelerating intermediate goods production (4.9% m/m vs. 1.6% m/m prev.), while its 3-month trend slowed down only limitedly (1.8% vs. 2.1% in 4Q22).
• Turnover indices and retail sales both recovered significantly in January.
• Incoming data so far shows different signals so it should be treated carefully as data generation processes from the regions have been impacted by the quakes.
• Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly growth rate of 2.9% (with 27% of info.) in February and 4.1% (23% of info.) in March.

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