Türkiye | Advances on GDP Nowcasting: Data, Frequency & Methodology

We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to compute real-time responses to policy impulses in a period of rapidly changing shocks.

Key points

• Key points:
• We enhance our dataset and make it available to routine updates with new potential variables or dropping old ones.
• We differentiate small and large data sets, which generate benefits from the relative advantages arising from the timing of the nowcast exercise.
• We reduce forecast errors by averaging alternative model results relative to single model results.
• We develop a «Weekly GDP Tracker» in order to maximize data releases and better assess policy implications.

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