Turkey: Unexpected Signal from August IP
Published on Monday, October 14, 2019 | Updated on Monday, October 14, 2019
Turkey: Unexpected Signal from August IP
Industrial Production (IP) declined by 3.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in August, lower than median market expectation and ours (Consensus:-0.7%, BBVA: -0.5%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a growth rate of +1.5% yoy in September (47% of info). We maintained a prudent forecast of 0.3% growth for 2019.
Key points
- Key points:
- Industrial Production (IP) declined by 3.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in August, higher than expectation.
- The improvement in high frequency indicators signal some acceleration in economic activity.
- Strong base effects and the acceleration in credit growth on the ease in monetary policy put upside risk on economic activity, supporting our positive view for 4Q.
- Complacency should be ruled out as uncertainties on geopolitical risks could dampen the upside risk
- We maintained a prudent forecast of 0.3% GDP growth for 2019
Documents to download
Authors
Topics
- Topic Tags
- Macroeconomic Analysis