Turkey | Strong activity indicators in November

Summary

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

Key points

• Key points:
• IP confirmed the continuation of strong economic activity given the acceleration in monthly growth of 3.3%, which was 0.7% in October.
• All the main subsectors gave a positive contribution where the capital goods production pioneered, followed by non-durable consumer goods and intermediary goods production, respectively.
• Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly growth rate of 8-9% yoy for December (37% of info), indicating a 2% quarterly growth for 4Q21. Therefore, 2021 GDP growth will likely get closer to 11%.
• Current strong momentum, supportive credit growth, looser economic policies and still solid global activity will support economic activity but the latest currency shock and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the downside for 2022.

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