Turkey | Continuation of solid activity in early 2021

Summary

Industrial Production(cal. adj.) grew by 11.4% yoy in Jan. confirming still strong activity at the start of the year (vs. its 10% growth in 4Q). Given the current strong momentum and the positively updated global forecasts, we plan to revise our GDP growth forecast above 6% for 2021 in contrast to our previous 5% forecast.

Key points

• Key points:
• Seasonal and calendar adjusted series maintained its growing trend with 1% mom, in the 9th consecutive month after April 2020.
• IP had mainly supported by durable (+6.5% mom) and intermediate goods production (+3.3% mom), while energy and capital goods production dragged down from growth (-3.7% and -2.9% mom, respectively).
• Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of still above 6% as of February, in which the composition of growth changes in favor of net exports
• Solid performance so far, strong positive base effects from March onwards, accelerating inoculation and upside revision in global forecast on supportive policies will lead us to revise our GDP growth forecast above 6% for 2021 from the previous forecast of 5%, despite the tight monetary stance.

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