The Russian-Ukrainian conflict: escalating tensions before negotiations

Summary

Tensions are set to escalate as a strategy by countries to prepare for the presidential-level summit of Ukrainian, Russian, German and French leaders in Astana this month. The level of fighting is likely to be limited, but the risk of some “accident” or mismanagement is still present. The rapid deterioration of the economic situation in both Ukraine and Russia should favour the avoidance of more dangerous strategies. The risk for chaotic political scenarios and the potential spill-overs to the rest of EM Europe has opened the door to alternative solutions on the EU side. However, this is not expected in the short term.

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