Peru | Strong statistical rebound in GDP in April, but below expectations

Output grew 58.5% YoY in April, lower than expected by the market consensus (60%). This result hides a low year-on-year comparison base due isolation measures were in force in April 2020.

Key points

• Key points:
• In an analysis that compares the 2021 GDP monthly prints with those of 2019 (a pre-crisis health situation) in order to avoid the strong distortion of the low YoY comparison base, output fell 3.5% in April.
• On the primary side there was a relatively marked decline. Hydrocarbons fell because some oil wells in the jungle and on the coast continue to be paralyzed, Mining because some mines are not operating at 100% of their capacity, and Agriculture due to unfavorable weather conditions.
• On the positive side, there was Fishing, which grew significantly due to the greater anchovet extraction.
• On the non-primary side, sectors such as Construction, which have performed well in recent months, are beginning to lose their thrust. It is also observed that the isolation measures continue to restrict commercial activity and some services (Accommodation and Restaurants). On the positive side, on the non-primary side, there are financial services and telecommunications, which during the pandemic crisis have been registering a strong expansion and this has been maintained until now.
• In the labor market, in May the indicators registered some improvement, although they are still far from their pre-ndemic levels, even more than the economic activity. In year-on-year terms, there was a significant increase in employment, but this is due to the statistical rebound. It is likely the labor market will not show signs of a significant recovery until the sources of uncertainty of consuming, investment, and hiring do not dissipate.

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