Spain | The impact of the DANA (isolated high-level depression) in real time with Big Data

Observing the performance of the economy in real time and at high granularity is vital to quickly measure the economic impact of an exceptional event such as the recent DANA that has left a lasting impact in our country, especially in Valencia.

Key points

• Key points:
• The data show that the economic impact has been significant, especially at a local level. The aggregated and anonymized analysis of transactions with credit cards issued by BBVA and purchases made at BBVA point-of-sale (POS) terminals indicate that in-person spending in the province of Valencia fell by -14% year-on-year during the week of October 28 to November 3.
• The fall represented a deterioration of more than 20 percentage points (pp) with respect to that observed in the rest of Spain, and contrasts with the pattern of the two weeks to October 29, when this difference, although negative, was less than 3 pp.
• Analysis at the postal code level indicates that the effects were even more dramatic, with a halt in consumption reflected in year-on-year reductions of between 80% and 100% in spending in the most affected areas.
• The in-person spending in the province of Valencia left behind the sharp decline of the week immediately following the DANA and now shows a near stagnation (-0.8% year-on-year).
• However, the improvement is uneven and especially slow in the municipalities that suffered the worst effects of the DANA. For example, in towns such as Paiporta, the reduction in credit card spending continues at around 95% year-on-year, partly as a result of the fact that only around 10% of the POS remain active.

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