Spain | Situation and outlook for the Aragonese economy second half of 2021

Aragon's GDP could grow by 4.7% in 2021. In 2022 it could accelerate to 5.4%, approaching the rate of growth forecast for Spain. If the forecasts are met, Aragon would create 21,000 new jobs between 2020 and 2022. There is a downward bias on these forecasts.

Key points

• Key points:
• Solid growth in 2021 (4.7%), although below that expected for Spain (5.2%). Consumption acts as a support and is the main driver of strong growth, especially in services.
• Tourism is driving less growth than in other communities. The progress in vaccination and the easing of restrictions are allowing the arrival of visitors, mainly nationals, and awaiting the winter season.
• Industrial activity and exports of goods have not yet consolidated their recovery. Industrial activity and investment in equipment needed an advance in exports that does not yet appear to be very solid. Housing purchases are picking up, but residential construction is not yet accelerating and public construction is also lagging behind.
• Uncertainty over several factors: progress on vaccination in Aragon's main trading partners; the resolution of problems in the production chain, especially in the automotive sector; when the cost of transport and production might stabilise; and the speed of implementation of NGEU funds and reforms.

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