Spain | Resilience of households in the face of rising interest rates

Summary

Spanish households have weathered the current cycle of rising interest rates considerably better than on previous occasions due to the strength of the labor market and the improvement in nominal gross income, despite the spike in inflation.

Key points

• Key points:
• This has allowed for a slight improvement in purchasing power in the first half of 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels. Also, a moderate growth in consumption has caused the saving rate to pick up across all income brackets, although more intensely in higher-income brackets.
• However, interest rate hikes have increased financial pressure on households with debts linked to the Euribor. In particular, households with mortgages were paying an average interest rate of 3.6% last October compared to 1.1% at the end of 2021, according to the Bank of Spain (BoS).
• The best indicator that households are holding up better than in other cycles can be seen in the trend in mortgage delinquency, which remains steady at low levels (12.4 billion euros, 2.5%), with a slight increase of 442 million in the second quarter of this year.
• The impact of the rate hike on household financial burdens has not yet been felt in its entirety, given that the latest official rate hike was in September, to 4.50%.
• Even so, market expectations regarding the changing interest rate cycle indicate that the Euribor, after reaching its peak in October (4.16%), is in decline. In the last weeks of December, it has already reached 3.75%, which, if the trends continue, will mean some slight relief in terms of maximum rates for households that have to renew their mortgage in 2024.

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