Spain | Regional GDP growth: 1st estimate of the 2023 Regional Accounts

Summary

The GDP growth for 2023 published today by the INE is consistent with the scenario published by BBVA Research, which anticipated that the leadership would be located in the island regions. However, forecast errors were higher in some regions, such as La Rioja, Madrid, Catalonia and Aragon.

Key points

• Key points:
• The results published by the INE suggest that, in general terms, in 2023 the good performance of private services and, in particular, commerce, hospitality and artistic activities gave more impetus to the Balearic and the Canary islands, whose growth was greater than 5.0 %. The progress was also above average in La Rioja (4.2%), Castilla-La Mancha (3.3%) and Castilla y León (3.0%), and in Asturias (2.8%).
• On the other hand, Murcia (2.0%) was the region with the least GDP growth in 2023. The lack of dynamism in the primary sector and the decline in the secondary sector explained this situation. Growth was also low in Navarra (2.1%), Comunitat Valenciana and Galicia (2.3%).
• With respect to the BBVA Research scenario, the GDP growth hierarchy is similar (Correlation coefficient: 0.5), although the INE data show greater variability (Standard deviation of 0.5 (BBVA) and 1.0 (INE )).

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